We explore the occurrence and detectability of planet-planet occultations (PPOs) in exoplanet systems. These are events during which a planet occults the disk of another planet in the same system, imparting a small photometric signal as its thermal or reflected light is blocked. We focus on the planets in TRAPPIST-1, whose orbital planes we show are aligned to < 0\buildrel{\circ}\over{.} 3 at 90% confidence. We present a photodynamical model for predicting and computing PPOs in TRAPPIST-1 and other systems for various assumptions of the planets’ atmospheric states. When marginalizing over the uncertainties on all orbital parameters, we find that the rate of PPOs in TRAPPIST-1 is about 1.4 per day. We investigate the prospects for detection of these events with the James Webb Space Telescope, finding that ∼10-20 occultations per year of b and c should be above the noise level at 12-15 μm. Joint modeling of several of these PPOs could lead to a robust detection. Alternatively, observations with the proposed Origins Space Telescope should be able to detect individual PPOs at high signal-to-noise ratios. We show how PPOs can be used to break transit timing variation degeneracies, imposing strong constraints on the eccentricities and masses of the planets, as well as to constrain the longitudes of nodes and thus the complete three-dimensional structure of the system. We further show how modeling of these events can be used to reveal a planet’s day/night temperature contrast and construct crude surface maps. We make our photodynamical code available on github (https://github.com/rodluger/planetplanet).
The TRAPPIST-1, Proxima Centauri, and LHS 1140 systems are the most exciting prospects for future follow-up observations of potentially inhabited planets. All of the planets orbit nearby M-stars and are likely tidally locked in 1:1 spinorbit states, which motivates the consideration of the effects that tidal locking might have on planetary habitability. On Earth, periods of global glaciation (snowballs) may have been essential for habitability and remote signs of life (biosignatures) because they are correlated with increases in the complexity of life and in the atmospheric oxygen concentration. In this paper, we investigate the snowball bifurcation (sudden onset of global glaciation) on tidally locked planets using both an energy balance model and an intermediate-complexity global climate model. We show that tidally locked planets are unlikely to exhibit a snowball bifurcation as a direct result of the spatial pattern of insolation they receive. Instead, they will smoothly transition from partial to complete ice coverage and back. A major implication of this work is that tidally locked planets with an active carbon cycle should not be found in a snowball state. Moreover, this work implies that tidally locked planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone with low CO2 outgassing fluxes will equilibrate with a small unglaciated substellar region rather than cycling between warm and snowball states. More work is needed to determine how the lack of a snowball bifurcation might affect the development of life on a tidally locked planet.