Full Citation: Meadows V. S., Arney G. N., Des Marais D. J., and Schmidt B. E. (2020). Preface. In Planetary…
In the near future, extremely large ground-based telescopes may conduct some of the first searches for life beyond the solar system. High spectral resolution observations of reflected light from nearby exoplanetary atmospheres could be used to search for the biosignature oxygen. However, while Earth’s abundant O2 is photosynthetic, early ocean loss may also produce high atmospheric O2 via water vapor photolysis and subsequent hydrogen escape. To explore how to use spectra to discriminate between these two oxygen sources, we generate high-resolution line-by-line synthetic spectra of both a habitable Earth-like and post-ocean-loss Proxima Centauri b.
Liquid water oceans are at the center of our search for life on exoplanets because water is a strict requirement for life as we know it. However, oceans are dynamic habitats—and some oceans may be better hosts for life than others. In Earth’s ocean, circulation transports essential nutrients such as phosphate and is a first-order control on the distribution and productivity of life. Of particular importance is upward flow from the dark depths of the ocean in response to wind-driven divergence in surface layers.
Dorian Abbot and postdoctoral fellow Stephanie Olson’s recent publication “Oceanographic Considerations for Exoplanet Life Detection” has been receiving some press…
We investigate the potential for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to detect and characterize the atmospheres of the sub-Neptunian exoplanets in the TOI-270 system. Sub-Neptunes are considered more likely to be water worlds than gas dwarfs. We model their atmospheres using three atmospheric compositions two examples of hydrogen-dominated atmospheres and a water-dominated atmosphere. We then simulate the infrared transmission spectra of these atmospheres for JWST instrument modes optimized for transit observation of exoplanet atmospheres: NIRISS, NIRSpec, and MIRI. We then predict the observability of each exoplanets atmosphere. TOI-270c and d are excellent targets for detecting atmospheres with JWST transmission spectroscopy, requiring only 1 transit observation with NIRISS, NIRSpec, and MIRI; higher signal-to-noise ratio can be obtained for a clear H-rich atmosphere. Fewer than three transits with NIRISS and NIRSpec may be enough to reveal molecular features. Water-dominated atmospheres require more transits. Water spectral features in water-dominated atmospheres may be detectable with NIRISS in two or three transits. We find that the detection of spectral features in a cloudy, H-rich atmosphere does not require integrations as long as those required for the water-dominated atmosphere, which is consistent with the differences in atmospheric mean molecular weight. TOI-270c and d could be prime targets for JWST transit observations of sub-Neptune atmospheres. These results provide useful predictions for observers who may propose to use JWST to detect and characterize the TOI-270 planet atmospheres.
David Fleming (University of Washington, Advisor: Rory Barnes) successfully defended his dissertation for PhD in Astronomy with focus in Data…
Multiple hypotheses/models have been put forward regarding Earth’s cooling history. Searching for life beyond Earth has brought these models into a new light as they connect to an energy source that life can tap. Discriminating between different cooling models and adapting them to aid in the assessment of planetary habitability has been hampered by a lack of uncertainty quantification. Here, we provide an uncertainty quantification that accounts for a range of interconnected model uncertainties. This involved calculating over a million individual model evolutions to determine uncertainty metrics. Accounting for uncertainties means that model results must be evaluated in a probabilistic sense, even though the underlying models are deterministic. The uncertainty analysis was used to quantify the degree to which different models can satisfy observational constraints on the Earth’s cooling. For the Earth’s cooling history, uncertainty leads to ambiguitymultiple models, based on different hypotheses, can match observations. This has implications for using such models to forecast conditions for exoplanets that share Earth characteristics but are older than the Earth, i.e., ambiguity has implications for modeling the long-term life potential of terrestrial planets. Even for the most earthlike planet we know of, the Earth itself, model uncertainty and ambiguity leads to large forecast spreads. Given that Earth has the best data constraints, we should expect larger spreads for models of terrestrial planets, in general. The uncertainty analysis provided here can be expanded by coupling planetary cooling models to climate models and propagating uncertainty between them to assess habitability from a probabilistic view.
Multiple hypotheses/models have been put forward regarding Earth’s cooling history. Searching for life beyond Earth has brought these models into a new light as they connect to an energy source that life can tap. Discriminating between different cooling models and adapting them to aid in the assessment of planetary habitability has been hampered by a lack of uncertainty quantification. Here, we provide an uncertainty quantification that accounts for a range of interconnected model uncertainties. This involved calculating over a million individual model evolutions to determine uncertainty metrics. Accounting for uncertainties means that model results must be evaluated in a probabilistic sense, even though the underlying models are deterministic. The uncertainty analysis was used to quantify the degree to which different models can satisfy observational constraints on the Earth’s cooling. For the Earth’s cooling history, uncertainty leads to ambiguitymultiple models, based on different hypotheses, can match observations. This has implications for using such models to forecast conditions for exoplanets that share Earth characteristics but are older than the Earth, i.e., ambiguity has implications for modeling the long-term life potential of terrestrial planets. Even for the most earthlike planet we know of, the Earth itself, model uncertainty and ambiguity leads to large forecast spreads. Given that Earth has the best data constraints, we should expect larger spreads for models of terrestrial planets, in general. The uncertainty analysis provided here can be expanded by coupling planetary cooling models to climate models and propagating uncertainty between them to assess habitability from a probabilistic view.
Chemical disequilibrium in exoplanetary atmospheres (detectable with remote spectroscopy) can indicate life. The modern Earth’s atmosphere–ocean system has a much larger chemical disequilibrium than other solar system planets with atmospheres because of oxygenic photosynthesis. However, no analysis exists comparing disequilibrium on lifeless, prebiotic planets to disequilibrium on worlds with primitive chemotrophic biospheres that live off chemicals and not light. Here, we use a photochemical–microbial ecosystem model to calculate the atmosphere–ocean disequilibria of Earth with no life and with a chemotrophic biosphere.
We model the long-term X-ray and ultraviolet (XUV) luminosity of TRAPPIST-1 to constrain the evolving high-energy radiation environment experienced by its planetary system. Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, we derive probabilistic constraints for TRAPPIST-1’s stellar and XUV evolution that account for observational uncertainties, degeneracies between model parameters, and empirical data of low-mass stars. We constrain TRAPPIST-1’s mass to m sstarf = 0.089 ± 0.001 M ? and find that its early XUV luminosity likely saturated at ${mathrm{log}}_{10}({L}_{mathrm{XUV}}/{L}_{mathrm{bol}})=-{3.03}_{-0.12}^{+0.23}$. From the posterior distribution, we infer that there is a ~40% chance that TRAPPIST-1 is still in the saturated phase today, suggesting that TRAPPIST-1 has maintained high activity and L XUV/L bol ? 10?3 for several gigayears. TRAPPIST-1’s planetary system therefore likely experienced a persistent and extreme XUV flux environment, potentially driving significant atmospheric erosion and volatile loss. The inner planets likely received XUV fluxes ~103104 times that of the modern Earth during TRAPPIST-1’s ~1 Gyr long pre-main-sequence phase. Deriving these constraints via MCMC is computationally nontrivial, so scaling our methods to constrain the XUV evolution of a larger number of M dwarfs that harbor terrestrial exoplanets would incur significant computational expenses. We demonstrate that approxposterior, an open source Python machine learning package for approximate Bayesian inference using Gaussian processes, accurately and efficiently replicates our analysis using 980 times less computational time and 1330 times fewer simulations than MCMC sampling using emcee. We find that approxposterior derives constraints with mean errors on the best-fit values and 1? uncertainties of 0.61% and 5.5%, respectively, relative to emcee.
VPL graduate student at the University of Washington, Andrew Lincowski, successfully defended his dissertation on Thursday February 27th! Andrew was…
We present gray gas general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the tidally locked mini-Neptune GJ 1214b. On timescales of 100010,000 Earth days, our results are comparable to previous studies of the same planet, in the sense that they all exhibit two off-equatorial eastward jets. Over much longer integration times (50,000250,000 Earth days) we find a significantly different circulation and observational features. The zonal-mean flow transitions from two off-equatorial jets to a single wide equatorial jet that has higher velocity and extends deeper. The hot spot location also shifts eastward over the integration time. Our results imply a convergence time far longer than the typical integration time used in previous studies. We demonstrate that this long convergence time is related to the long radiative timescale of the deep atmosphere and can be understood through a series of simple arguments. Our results indicate that particular attention must be paid to model convergence time in exoplanet GCM simulations, and that other results on the circulation of tidally locked exoplanets with thick atmospheres may need to be revisited.
Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) or the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) may soon be able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M-dwarf system TRAPPIST-1, which has seven known transiting planets for which transit timing variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles. Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate to have habitable surface conditions, receiving ?66?% of the Earth’s incident radiation and thus needing only modest greenhouse gas inventories to raise surface temperatures to allow surface liquid water to exist. TRAPPIST-1e is, therefore, one of the prime targets for the JWST atmospheric characterization. In this context, the modeling of its potential atmosphere is an essential step prior to observation. Global climate models (GCMs) offer the most detailed way to simulate planetary atmospheres. However, intrinsic differences exist between GCMs which can lead to different climate prediction and thus observability of gas and/or cloud features in transmission and thermal emission spectra. Such differences should preferably be known prior to observations. In this paper we present a protocol to intercompare planetary GCMs. Four testing cases are considered for TRAPPIST-1e, but the methodology is applicable to other rocky exoplanets in the habitable zone. The four test cases included two land planets composed of modern-Earth and pure-CO2 atmospheres and two aqua planets with the same atmospheric compositions. Currently, there are four participating models (LMDG, ROCKE-3D, ExoCAM, UM); however, this protocol is intended to let other teams participate as well.
Models of planet formation are built on underlying physical processes. In order to make sense of the origin of the planets we must first understand the origin of their building blocks. This review comes in two parts. The first part presents a detailed description of six key mechanisms of planet formation: 1) The structure and evolution of protoplanetary disks 2) The formation of planetesimals 3) Accretion of protoplanets 4) Orbital migration of growing planets 5) Gas accretion and giant planet migration 6) Resonance trapping during planet migration. While this is not a comprehensive list, it includes processes for which our understanding has changed in recent years or for which key uncertainties remain.
The second part of this review shows how global models are built out of planet formation processes. We present global models to explain different populations of known planetary systems, including close-in small/low-mass planets (i.e., super-Earths), giant exoplanets, and the Solar System’s planets. We discuss the different sources of water on rocky exoplanets, and use cosmochemical measurements to constrain the origin of Earth’s water. We point out the successes and failings of different models and how they may be falsified.
Finally, we lay out a path for the future trajectory of planet formation studies.
A planet’s climate can be strongly affected by its orbital eccentricity and obliquity. Here we use a 1-dimensional energy balance model modified to include a simple runaway greenhouse (RGH) parameterization to explore the effects of these two parameters on the climate of Earth-like aqua planets – completely ocean-covered planets – orbiting F-, G-, K-, and M-dwarf stars. We find that the range of instellations for which planets exhibit habitable surface conditions throughout an orbit decreases with increasing eccentricity. However, the appearance of temporarily habitable conditions during an orbit creates an eccentric habitable zone (EHZ) that is sensitive to orbital eccentricity and obliquity, planetary latitude, and host star spectral type. We find that the fraction of a planet’s orbit over which it exhibits habitable surface conditions is larger on eccentric planets orbiting M-dwarf stars, due to the lower broadband planetary albedos of these planets. Planets with larger obliquities have smaller EHZs, but exhibit warmer climates if they do not enter a snowball state during their orbits. We also find no transient runaway greenhouse state on planets at all eccentricities. Rather, planets spend their entire orbits either in a RGH or not. For G-dwarf planets receiving 100% of the modern solar constant and with eccentricities above 0.55, an entire Earth ocean inventory can be lost in 3.6 Gyr. M-dwarf planets, due to their larger incident XUV flux, can become desiccated in only 690 Myr with eccentricities above 0.38. This work has important implications for eccentric planets that may exhibit surface habitability despite technically departing from the traditional habitable zone as they orbit their host stars.
Small exoplanets of nearby M-dwarf stars present the possibility of finding and characterizing habitable worlds within the next decade. TRAPPIST-1, an ultracool M-dwarf star, was recently found to have seven Earth-sized planets of predominantly rocky composition. The planets e, f, and g could have a liquid water ocean on their surface given appropriate atmospheres of N2 and CO2. In particular, climate models have shown that the planets e and f can sustain a global liquid water ocean, for ?0.2 bar CO2 plus 1 bar N2, or ?2 bar CO2, respectively. These atmospheres are irradiated by ultraviolet emission from the star’s moderately active chromosphere, and the consequence of this irradiation is unknown. Here we show that chemical reactions driven by the irradiation produce and maintain more than 0.2 bar O2 and 0.05 bar CO if the CO2 is ?0.1 bar. The abundance of O2 and CO can rise to more than 1 bar under certain boundary conditions. Because of this O2CO runaway, habitable environments on the TRAPPIST-1 planets entail an O2- and CO-rich atmosphere with coexisting O3. The only process that would prevent runaway is direct recombination of O2 and CO in the ocean, a reaction that is facilitated biologically. Our results indicate that O2, O3, and CO should be considered together with CO2 as the primary molecules in the search for atmospheric signatures from temperate and rocky planets of TRAPPIST-1 and other M-dwarf stars.
We describe a software package called VPLanet that simulates fundamental aspects of planetary system evolution over Gyr timescales, with a focus on investigating habitable worlds. In this initial release, eleven physics modules are included that model internal, atmospheric, rotational, orbital, stellar, and galactic processes. Many of these modules can be coupled to simultaneously simulate the evolution of terrestrial planets, gaseous planets, and stars. The code is validated by reproducing a selection of observations and past results. VPLanet is written in C and designed so that the user can choose the physics modules to apply to an individual object at runtime without recompiling, i.e., a single executable can simulate the diverse phenomena that are relevant to a wide range of planetary and stellar systems. This feature is enabled by matrices and vectors of function pointers that are dynamically allocated and populated based on user input. The speed and modularity of VPLanet enables large parameter sweeps and the versatility to add/remove physical phenomena to assess their importance. VPLanet is publicly available from a repository that contains extensive documentation, numerous examples, Python scripts for plotting and data management, and infrastructure for community input and future development.
Despite surface liquid water’s importance to habitability, observationally diagnosing its presence or absence on exoplanets is still an open problem. Inspired within the solar system by the differing sulfur cycles on Venus and Earth, we investigate thick sulfate (H2SO4–H2O) aerosol haze and high trace mixing ratios of SO2 gas as observable atmospheric features whose sustained existence is linked to the near absence of surface liquid water. We examine the fundamentals of the sulfur cycle on a rocky planet with an ocean and an atmosphere in which the dominant forms of sulfur are SO2 gas and H2SO4–H2O aerosols (as on Earth and Venus). We build a simple but robust model of the wet, oxidized sulfur cycle to determine the critical amounts of sulfur in the atmosphere–ocean system required for detectable levels of SO2 and a detectable haze layer. We demonstrate that for physically realistic ocean pH values (pH gsim 6) and conservative assumptions on volcanic outgassing, chemistry, and aerosol microphysics, surface liquid water reservoirs with greater than 10−3 Earth oceans are incompatible with a sustained observable H2SO4–H2O haze layer and sustained observable levels of SO2. Thus, we propose the observational detection of an H2SO4–H2O haze layer and of SO2 gas as two new remote indicators that a planet does not host significant surface liquid water.
The energy balance and climate of planets can be affected by the reflective properties of their land, ocean, and frozen surfaces. Here we investigate the effect of host star spectral energy distribution (SED) on the albedo of these surfaces using a one-dimensional energy balance model. Incorporating spectra of M-, K-, G-, and F-dwarf stars, we determined the effect of varying fractional and latitudinal distribution of land and ocean surfaces as a function of host star SED on the overall planetary albedo, climate, and ice-albedo feedback response. While noting that the spatial distribution of land masses on a given planet will have an effect on the overall planetary energy balance, we find that terrestrial planets with higher average land/ocean fractions are relatively cooler and have higher albedo regardless of star type. For Earth-like planets orbiting M-dwarf stars, the increased absorption of water ice in the near-infrared, where M-dwarf stars emit much of their energy, resulted in warmer global mean surface temperatures, ice lines at higher latitudes, and increased climate stability as the ice-albedo feedback became negative at high land fractions. Conversely, planets covered largely by ocean, and especially those orbiting bright stars, had a considerably different energy balance due to the contrast between the reflective land and the absorptive ocean surface, which in turn resulted in warmer average surface temperatures than land-covered planets and a stronger potential ice-albedo feedback. While dependent on the properties of individual planetary systems, our results place some constraints on a range of climate states of terrestrial exoplanets based on albedo and incident flux.
Transit spectroscopy of terrestrial planets around nearby M dwarfs will be a primary goal of space missions in coming decades. Three-dimensional climate modeling has shown that slow-synchronous rotating terrestrial planets may develop thick clouds at the substellar point, increasing the albedo. For M dwarfs with T eff > 3000 K, such planets at the inner habitable zone (IHZ) have been shown to retain moist greenhouse conditions, with enhanced stratospheric water vapor (fH 2O > 10?3) and low Earth-like surface temperatures. However, M dwarfs also possess strong UV activity, which may effectively photolyze stratospheric H2O. Prior modeling efforts have not included the impact of high stellar UV activity on the H2O. Here, we employ a 1D photochemical model with varied stellar UV, to assess whether H2O destruction driven by high stellar UV would affect its detectability in transmission spectroscopy. Temperature and water vapor profiles are taken from published 3D climate model simulations for an IHZ Earth-sized planet around a 3300 K M dwarf with an N2H2O atmosphere; they serve as self-consistent input profiles for the 1D model. We explore additional chemical complexity within the 1D model by introducing other species into the atmosphere. We find that as long as the atmosphere is well-mixed up to 1 mbar, UV activity appears to not impact detectability of H2O in the transmission spectrum. The strongest H2O features occur in the James Webb Space Telescope MIRI instrument wavelength range and are comparable to the estimated systematic noise floor of ~50 ppm.
In this Letter we will consider the effect of tidal locking on limit cycling between snowball and warm climate states, which has been suggested could occur for rapidly rotating planets in the outer regions of the habitable zone with low CO2 outgassing rates. Here, we use a 3D Global Climate Model that calculates silicate-weathering to show that tidally locked planets with an active carbon cycle will not experience limit cycling between warm and snowball states. Instead, they smoothly settle into “Eyeball” states with a small unglaciated substellar region. The size of this unglaciated region depends on the stellar irradiation, the CO2 outgassing rate, and the continental configuration. Furthermore, we argue that a tidally locked habitable zone planet cannot stay in a snowball state for a geologically significant time. This may be beneficial to the survival of complex life on tidally locked planets orbiting the outer edge of their stars, but might also make it less likely for complex life to arise.
Molecular nitrogen is the most commonly assumed background gas that supports habitability on rocky planets. Despite its chemical inertness, nitrogen molecules are broken by lightning, hot volcanic vents, and bolide impacts, and can be converted into soluble nitrogen compounds and then sequestered in the ocean. The very stability of nitrogen, and that of nitrogen-based habitability, is thus called into question. Here we determine the lifetime of molecular nitrogen vis-à-vis aqueous sequestration, by developing a novel model that couples atmospheric photochemistry and oceanic chemistry. We find that HNO, the dominant nitrogen compound produced in anoxic atmospheres, is converted to N2O in the ocean, rather than oxidized to nitrites or nitrates as previously assumed. This N2O is then released back into the atmosphere and quickly converted to N2. We also find that the deposition rate of NO is severely limited by the kinetics of the aqueous-phase reaction that converts NO to nitrites in the ocean. Putting these insights together, we conclude that the atmosphere must produce nitrogen species at least as oxidized as NO2 and HNO2 to enable aqueous sequestration. The lifetime of molecular nitrogen in anoxic atmospheres is determined to be >1 billion years on temperate planets of both Sun-like and M dwarf stars. This result upholds the validity of molecular nitrogen as a universal background gas on rocky planets.
VPL scientist Aomawa Shields’ recent paper on the Energy Budgets for Terrestrial Extrasolar Planets was featured in a AAS Nova…
Planets that revolve around a binary pair of stars are known as circumbinary planets. The orbital motion of the stars around their center of mass causes a periodic variation in the total instellation incident upon a circumbinary planet. This study uses both an analytic and numerical energy balance model to calculate the extent to which this effect can drive changes in surface temperature on circumbinary terrestrial planets. We show that the amplitude of the temperature variation is largely constrained by the effective heat capacity, which corresponds to the ocean?to?land ratio on the planet. Planets with large ocean fractions should experience only modest warming and cooling of only a few degrees, which suggests that habitability cannot be precluded for such circumbinary planets. Planets with large land fractions that experience extreme periodic forcing could be prone to changes in temperature of tens of degrees or more, which could drive more extreme climate changes that inhibit continuously habitable conditions.