We simulate the coupled stellar and tidal evolution of short-period binary stars (orbital period $P_{orb} lsim$8 days) to investigate the orbital oscillations, instellation cycles, and orbital stability of circumbinary planets (CBPs). We consider two tidal models and show that both predict an outward-then-inward evolution of the binary’s semi-major axis abin and eccentricity ebin. This orbital evolution drives a similar evolution of the minimum CBP semi-major axis for orbital stability. By expanding on previous models to include the evolution of the mass concentration, we show that the maximum in the CBP orbital stability limit tends to occur 100 Myr after the planets form, a factor of 100 longer than previous investigations. This result provides further support for the hypothesis that the early stellar-tidal evolution of binary stars has removed CBPs from short-period binaries. We then apply the models to Kepler-47 b, a CBP orbiting close to its host stars’ stability limit, to show that if the binary’s initial $e_{bin} gsim$0.24, the planet would have been orbiting within the instability zone in the past and probably wouldn’t have survived. For stable, hypothetical cases in which the stability limit does not reach a planet’s orbit, we find that the amplitudes of abin and ebin oscillations can damp by up to 10% and 50%, respectively. Finally, we consider equal-mass stars with Porb= 7.5 days and compare the HZ to the stability limit. We find that for stellar masses $lsim0.12M_{odot}$, the HZ is completely unstable, even if the binary orbit is circular. For $e_{bin} lsim$0.5, that limit increases to 0.17M?, and the HZ is partially destabilized for stellar masses up to 0.45M?. These results may help guide searches for potentially habitable CBPs, as well as characterize their evolution and likelihood to support life after they are found.
Context. GJ 1148 is an M-dwarf star hosting a planetary system composed of two Saturn-mass planets in eccentric orbits with periods of 41.38 and 532.02 days.
Aims. We reanalyze the orbital configuration and dynamics of the GJ 1148 multi-planetary system based on new precise radial velocity measurements taken with CARMENES.
Methods. We combined new and archival precise Doppler measurements from CARMENES with those available from HIRES for GJ 1148 and modeled these data with a self-consistent dynamical model. We studied the orbital dynamics of the system using the secular theory and direct N-body integrations. The prospects of potentially habitable moons around GJ 1148 b were examined.
Results. The refined dynamical analyses show that the GJ 1148 system is long-term stable in a large phase-space of orbital parameters with an orbital configuration suggesting apsidal alignment, but not in any particular high-order mean-motion resonant commensurability. GJ 1148 b orbits inside the optimistic habitable zone (HZ). We find only a narrow stability region around the planet where exomoons can exist. However, in this stable region exomoons exhibit quick orbital decay due to tidal interaction with the planet.
Conclusions. The GJ 1148 planetary system is a very rare M-dwarf planetary system consisting of a pair of gas giants, the inner of which resides in the HZ. We conclude that habitable exomoons around GJ 1148 b are very unlikely to exist.
David Fleming (University of Washington, Advisor: Rory Barnes) successfully defended his dissertation for PhD in Astronomy with focus in Data…
We model the long-term X-ray and ultraviolet (XUV) luminosity of TRAPPIST-1 to constrain the evolving high-energy radiation environment experienced by its planetary system. Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, we derive probabilistic constraints for TRAPPIST-1’s stellar and XUV evolution that account for observational uncertainties, degeneracies between model parameters, and empirical data of low-mass stars. We constrain TRAPPIST-1’s mass to m sstarf = 0.089 ± 0.001 M ? and find that its early XUV luminosity likely saturated at ${mathrm{log}}_{10}({L}_{mathrm{XUV}}/{L}_{mathrm{bol}})=-{3.03}_{-0.12}^{+0.23}$. From the posterior distribution, we infer that there is a ~40% chance that TRAPPIST-1 is still in the saturated phase today, suggesting that TRAPPIST-1 has maintained high activity and L XUV/L bol ? 10?3 for several gigayears. TRAPPIST-1’s planetary system therefore likely experienced a persistent and extreme XUV flux environment, potentially driving significant atmospheric erosion and volatile loss. The inner planets likely received XUV fluxes ~103104 times that of the modern Earth during TRAPPIST-1’s ~1 Gyr long pre-main-sequence phase. Deriving these constraints via MCMC is computationally nontrivial, so scaling our methods to constrain the XUV evolution of a larger number of M dwarfs that harbor terrestrial exoplanets would incur significant computational expenses. We demonstrate that approxposterior, an open source Python machine learning package for approximate Bayesian inference using Gaussian processes, accurately and efficiently replicates our analysis using 980 times less computational time and 1330 times fewer simulations than MCMC sampling using emcee. We find that approxposterior derives constraints with mean errors on the best-fit values and 1? uncertainties of 0.61% and 5.5%, respectively, relative to emcee.
We describe a software package called VPLanet that simulates fundamental aspects of planetary system evolution over Gyr timescales, with a focus on investigating habitable worlds. In this initial release, eleven physics modules are included that model internal, atmospheric, rotational, orbital, stellar, and galactic processes. Many of these modules can be coupled to simultaneously simulate the evolution of terrestrial planets, gaseous planets, and stars. The code is validated by reproducing a selection of observations and past results. VPLanet is written in C and designed so that the user can choose the physics modules to apply to an individual object at runtime without recompiling, i.e., a single executable can simulate the diverse phenomena that are relevant to a wide range of planetary and stellar systems. This feature is enabled by matrices and vectors of function pointers that are dynamically allocated and populated based on user input. The speed and modularity of VPLanet enables large parameter sweeps and the versatility to add/remove physical phenomena to assess their importance. VPLanet is publicly available from a repository that contains extensive documentation, numerous examples, Python scripts for plotting and data management, and infrastructure for community input and future development.
“A group of leading researchers in astronomy, biology and geology have come together under NASA’s Nexus for Exoplanet System Science, or…
Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its star’s habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here, we use 1-D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for several evolutionary scenarios, including high-O2, high-CO2, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with both oxic and anoxic compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen b’s position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and use instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states.
The obliquity of the Earth, which controls our seasons, varies by only ~2fdg5 over ~40,000 years, and its eccentricity varies by only ~0.05 over 100,000 years. Nonetheless, these small variations influence Earth’s ice ages. For exoplanets, however, variations can be significantly larger. Previous studies of the habitability of moonless Earth-like exoplanets have found that high obliquities, high eccentricities, and dynamical variations can extend the outer edge of the habitable zone by preventing runaway glaciation (snowball states). We expand upon these studies by exploring the orbital dynamics with a semianalytic model that allows us to map broad regions of parameter space. We find that, in general, the largest drivers of obliquity variations are secular spin–orbit resonances. We show how the obliquity varies in several test cases, including Kepler-62 f, across a wide range of orbital and spin parameters. These obliquity variations, alongside orbital variations, will have a dramatic impact on the climates of such planets.
As lower-mass stars often host multiple rocky planets, gravitational interactions among planets can have significant effects on climate and habitability over long timescales. Here we explore a specific case, Kepler-62f, a potentially habitable planet in a five-planet system with a K2V host star. N-body integrations reveal the stable range of initial eccentricities for Kepler-62f is 0.00⩽e⩽0.32, absent the effect of additional, undetected planets. We simulate the tidal evolution of Kepler-62f in this range and find that, for certain assumptions, the planet can be locked in a synchronous rotation state. Simulations using LMD Generic GCM indicate that with 3 bars of CO2 in its atmosphere, Kepler-62f would only be warm enough for surface liquid water at the upper limit of this eccentricity range, providing it has a high planetary obliquity (between 60∘ and 90∘). A climate similar to modern-day Earth is possible for the entire range of stable eccentricities if atmospheric CO2 is increased to 5-bar levels. In a low-CO2 case, simulations with CCSM4 and LMD Generic GCM indicate that increases in planetary obliquity and orbital eccentricity coupled with an orbital configuration that places the summer solstice at or near pericenter permit regions of the planet with above-freezing surface temperatures. This may melt ice sheets formed during colder seasons. If Kepler-62f is synchronously rotating and has an ocean, CO2 levels above 3 bars would be required to distribute enough heat to the night side of the planet to avoid atmospheric freeze-out and permit a large enough region of open water at the planet’s substellar point to remain stable. Overall, we find multiple plausible combinations of orbital and atmospheric properties that permit surface liquid water on Kepler-62f.
O2 and O3 have been long considered the most robust individual biosignature gases in a planetary atmosphere, yet multiple mechanisms that may produce them in the absence of life have been described. However, these abiotic planetary mechanisms modify the environment in potentially identifiable ways. Here we briefly discuss two of the most detectable spectral discriminants for abiotic O2/O3: CO and O4. We produce the first explicit self-consistent simulations of these spectral discriminants as they may be seen by James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). If JWST-NIRISS and/or NIRSpec observe CO (2.35, 4.6 μm) in conjunction with CO2 (1.6, 2.0, 4.3 μm) in the transmission spectrum of a terrestrial planet it could indicate robust CO2 photolysis and suggest that a future detection of O2 or O3 might not be biogenic. Strong O4 bands seen in transmission at 1.06 and 1.27 μm could be diagnostic of a post-runaway O2-dominated atmosphere from massive H-escape. We find that for these false positive scenarios, CO at 2.35 μm, CO2 at 2.0 and 4.3 μm, and O4 at 1.27 μm are all stronger features in transmission than O2/O3 and could be detected with S/Ns gsim 3 for an Earth-size planet orbiting a nearby M dwarf star with as few as 10 transits, assuming photon-limited noise. O4 bands could also be sought in UV/VIS/NIR reflected light (at 0.345, 0.36, 0.38, 0.445, 0.475, 0.53, 0.57, 0.63, 1.06, and 1.27 μm) by a next generation direct-imaging telescope such as LUVOIR/HDST or HabEx and would indicate an oxygen atmosphere too massive to be biologically produced.
The υ Andromedae system is the first exoplanetary system to have the relative inclination of two planets’ orbital planes directly measured, and therefore offers our first window into the three-dimensional configurations of planetary systems. We present, for the first time, full three-dimensional, dynamically stable configurations for the three planets of the system consistent with all observational constraints. While the outer two planets, c and d, are inclined by ~30°, the inner planet’s orbital plane has not been detected.
Exoplanet habitability is traditionally assessed by comparing a planet’s semimajor axis to the location of its host star’s “habitable zone,” the shell around a star for which Earth-like planets can possess liquid surface water. The Kepler space telescope has discovered numerous planet candidates near the habitable zone, and many more are expected from missions such as K2, TESS, and PLATO. These candidates often require significant follow-up observations for validation, so prioritizing planets for habitability from transit data has become an important aspect of the search for life in the universe.
The determination of an exoplanet as rocky is critical for the assessment of planetary habitability. Observationally, the number of small-radius, transiting planets with accompanying mass measurements is insufficient for a robust determination of the transitional mass or radius. Theoretically, models predict that rocky planets can grow large enough to become gas giants when they reach ~10 MEarth, but the transitional mass remains unknown. Here I show how transit data, interpreted in the context of tidal theory, can reveal the critical radius that separates rocky and gaseous exoplanets. Standard tidal models predict that rocky exoplanets’ orbits are tidally circularized much more rapidly than gaseous bodies’, suggesting the former will tend to be found on circular orbits at larger semi-major axes than the latter. Well-sampled transits can provide a minimum eccentricity of the orbit, allowing a measurement of this differential circularization. I show that this effect should be present in the data from the Kepler spacecraft, but is not apparent. Instead, it appears that there is no evidence of tidal circularization at any planetary radius, probably because the publicly-available data, particularly the impact parameters, are not accurate enough. I also review the bias in the transit duration towards values that are smaller than that of planets on circular orbits, stressing that the azimuthal velocity of the planet determines the transit duration. The ensemble of Kepler planet candidates may be able to determine the critical radius between rocky and gaseous exoplanets, tidal dissipation as a function of planetary radius, and discriminate between tidal models.
We show that terrestrial planets in the habitable zones of M dwarfs older than ∼1 Gyr could have been in runaway greenhouses for several hundred million years following their formation due to the star’s extended pre-main sequence phase, provided they form with abundant surface water. Such prolonged runaway greenhouses can lead to planetary evolution divergent from that of Earth. During this early runaway phase, photolysis of water vapor and hydrogen/oxygen escape to space can lead to the loss of several Earth oceans of water from planets throughout the habitable zone, regardless of whether the escape is energy-limited or diffusion-limited.
We explore the impact of obliquity variations on planetary habitability in hypothetical systems with high mutual inclination. We show that large-amplitude, high-frequency obliquity oscillations on Earth-like exoplanets can suppress the ice-albedo feedback, increasing the outer edge of the habitable zone. We restricted our exploration to hypothetical systems consisting of a solar-mass star, an Earth-mass planet at 1 AU, and 1 or 2 larger planets. We verified that these systems are stable for 108 years with N-body simulations and calculated the obliquity variations induced by the orbital evolution of the Earth-mass planet and a torque from the host star. We ran a simplified energy balance model on the terrestrial planet to assess surface temperature and ice coverage on the planet’s surface, and we calculated differences in the outer edge of the habitable zone for planets with rapid obliquity variations. For each hypothetical system, we calculated the outer edge of habitability for two conditions: (1) the full evolution of the planetary spin and orbit and (2) the eccentricity and obliquity fixed at their average values. We recovered previous results that higher values of fixed obliquity and eccentricity expand the habitable zone, but we also found that obliquity oscillations further expand habitable orbits in all cases. Terrestrial planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone may be more likely to support life in systems that induce rapid obliquity oscillations as opposed to fixed-spin planets. Such planets may be the easiest to directly characterize with space-borne telescopes. Key Words: Exoplanets—Habitable zone—Energy balance models. Astrobiology 14, 277–291.
In a multiplanet system, tides acting on the inner planet can significantly affect the orbital evolution of the entire system. While tides usually damp eccentricities, a novel mechanism identified by Correia et al. (Astrophys J Lett 744, article id. L23, 2012) tends to raise eccentricities as a result of the tides’ effect on the inner planet’s rotation. Our analytical description of this spin-driven tidal (SDT) effect shows that, while the inner planet’s eccentricity undergoes pumping, the process is more completely described by an exchange of strength between the two eigenmodes of the dynamical system. Our analysis allows derivation of criteria for two-planet coplanar systems where the SDT effect can reverse tidal damping, and may preclude the effect’s being significant for realistic systems. For the specific case quantified by Correia et al., the effect is strong because of the large adopted tidal time lag, which may not be appropriate for the assumed Saturn-like inner planet. On the other hand, the effective
Doppler measurements of GJ 667C are described better by six (even seven) Keplerian-like signals: the two known candidates
(b and c); three additional few-Earth mass candidates with periods of 92, 62 and 39 days (d, e and f); a cold super-Earth in a 260-day
orbit (g) and tantalizing evidence of a ∼ 1 M⊕ object in a close-in orbit of 17 days (h). We explore whether long-term stable orbits are
compatible with the data by integrating 8×104
solutions derived from the Bayesian samplings. We assess their stability using secular
frequency analysis.
If mutual gravitational scattering among exoplanets occurs, then it may produce unique orbital properties. For example, two-planet systems that lie near the boundary between circulation and libration of their periapses could result if planet-planet scattering ejected a former third planet quickly, leaving one planet on an eccentric orbit and the other on a circular orbit. We first improve upon previous work that examined the apsidal behavior of known multiplanet systems by doubling the sample size and including observational uncertainties. This analysis recovers previous results that demonstrated that many systems lay on the apsidal boundary between libration and circulation. We then performed over 12,000 three-dimensional N-body simulations of hypothetical three-body systems that are unstable, but stabilize to two-body systems after an ejection. Using these synthetic two-planet systems, we test the planet-planet scattering hypothesis by comparing their apsidal behavior, over a range of viewing angles, to that of the observed systems and find that they are statistically consistent regardless of the multiplicity of the observed systems. Finally, we combine our results with previous studies to show that, from the sampled cases, the most likely planetary mass function prior to planet-planet scattering follows a power law with index -1.1. We find that this pre-scattering mass function predicts a mutual inclination frequency distribution that follows an exponential function with an index between -0.06 and -0.1.
The Apache Point Survey of Transit Lightcurves of Exoplanets (APOSTLE) observed 10 transits of XO-2b over a period of 3 yr. We present measurements that confirm previous estimates of system parameters like the normalized semi-major axis (a/R sstarf), stellar density (ρsstarf), impact parameter (b), and orbital inclination (i orb). Our errors on system parameters like a/R sstarf and ρsstarf have improved by ~40% compared to previous best ground-based measurements. Our study of the transit times show no evidence for transit timing variations (TTVs) and we are able to rule out co-planar companions with masses ≥0.20 M ⊕ in low order mean motion resonance with XO-2b. We also explored the stability of the XO-2 system given various orbital configurations of a hypothetical planet near the 2:1 mean motion resonance. We find that a wide range of orbits (including Earth-mass perturbers) are both dynamically stable and produce observable TTVs. We find that up to 51% of our stable simulations show TTVs that are smaller than the typical transit timing errors (~20 s) measured for XO-2b, and hence remain undetectable.
We present measurements that confirm previous estimates of system parameters like the normalized semi-major axis (a/R sstarf), stellar density (ρsstarf), impact parameter (b), and orbital inclination (i orb). Our errors on system parameters like a/R sstarf and ρsstarf have improved by ~40% compared to previous best ground-based measurements. Our study of the transit times show no evidence for transit timing variations (TTVs) and we are able to rule out co-planar companions with masses ≥0.20 M ⊕ in low order mean motion resonance with XO-2b.
We describe the discovery of a likely brown dwarf (BD) companion with a minimum mass of 31.7 ± 2.0 M Jup to GSC 03546-01452 from the MARVELS radial velocity survey, which we designate as MARVELS-6b. For reasonable priors, our analysis gives a probability of 72% that MARVELS-6b has a mass below the hydrogen-burning limit of 0.072 M ☉, and thus it is a high-confidence BD companion. It has a moderately long orbital period of $47.8929^{+0.0063}_{-0.0062}$ days with a low eccentricity of $0.1442^{+0.0078}_{-0.0073}$, and a semi-amplitude of $1644^{+12}_{-13}$ m s–1. Moderate resolution spectroscopy of the host star has determined the following parameters: T eff = 5598 ± 63, log g = 4.44 ± 0.17, and [Fe/H] = +0.40 ± 0.09. Based upon these measurements, GSC 03546-01452 has a probable mass and radius of M * = 1.11 ± 0.11 M ☉ and R * = 1.06 ± 0.23 R ☉ with an age consistent with less than ~6 Gyr at a distance of 219 ± 21 pc from the Sun. Although MARVELS-6b is not observed to transit, we cannot definitively rule out a transiting configuration based on our observations. There is a visual companion detected with Lucky Imaging at 7farcs7 from the host star, but our analysis shows that it is not bound to this system. The minimum mass of MARVELS-6b exists at the minimum of the mass functions for both stars and planets, making this a rare object even compared to other BDs. It also exists in an underdense region in both period/eccentricity and metallicity/eccentricity space.
Traditionally, stellar radiation has been the only heat source considered capable of determining global climate on long timescales. Here, we show that terrestrial exoplanets orbiting low-mass stars may be tidally heated at high-enough levels to induce a runaway greenhouse for a long-enough duration for all the hydrogen to escape. Without hydrogen, the planet no longer has water and cannot support life. We call these planets “Tidal Venuses” and the phenomenon a “tidal greenhouse.” Tidal effects also circularize the orbit, which decreases tidal heating. Hence, some planets may form with large eccentricity, with its accompanying large tidal heating, and lose their water, but eventually settle into nearly circular orbits (i.e., with negligible tidal heating) in the habitable zone (HZ).
Traditionally, stellar radiation has been the only heat source considered capable of determining global climate on long timescales. Here, we show that terrestrial exoplanets orbiting low-mass stars may be tidally heated at high-enough levels to induce a runaway greenhouse for a long-enough duration for all the hydrogen to escape. Without hydrogen, the planet no longer has water and cannot support life. We call these planets “Tidal Venuses” and the phenomenon a “tidal greenhouse.” Tidal effects also circularize the orbit, which decreases tidal heating. Hence, some planets may form with large eccentricity, with its accompanying large tidal heating, and lose their water, but eventually settle into nearly circular orbits (i.e., with negligible tidal heating) in the habitable zone (HZ).
White and brown dwarfs are astrophysical objects that are bright enough to support an insolation habitable zone (IHZ). Unlike hydrogen-burning stars, they cool and become less luminous with time; hence their IHZ moves in with time. The inner edge of the IHZ is defined as the orbital radius at which a planet may enter a moist or runaway greenhouse, phenomena that can remove a planet’s surface water forever. Thus, as the IHZ moves in, planets that enter it may no longer have any water and are still uninhabitable. Additionally, the close proximity of the IHZ to the primary leads to concern that tidal heating may also be strong enough to trigger a runaway greenhouse, even for orbital eccentricities as small as 10−6. Water loss occurs due to photolyzation by UV photons in the planetary stratosphere, followed by hydrogen escape. Young white dwarfs emit a large amount of these photons, as their surface temperatures are over 104 K. The situation is less clear for brown dwarfs, as observational data do not constrain their early activity and UV emission very well. Nonetheless, both types of planets are at risk of never achieving habitable conditions, but planets orbiting white dwarfs may be less likely to sustain life than those orbiting brown dwarfs. We consider the future habitability of the planet candidates KOI 55.01 and 55.02 in these terms and find they are unlikely to become habitable. Key Words: Extrasolar terrestrial planets—Habitability—Habitable zone—Tides—Exoplanets. Astrobiology 13, 279–291.
The detection of moons orbiting extrasolar planets (“exomoons”) has now become feasible. Once they are discovered in the circumstellar habitable zone, questions about their habitability will emerge. Exomoons are likely to be tidally locked to their planet and hence experience days much shorter than their orbital period around the star and have seasons, all of which works in favor of habitability. These satellites can receive more illumination per area than their host planets, as the planet reflects stellar light and emits thermal photons. On the contrary, eclipses can significantly alter local climates on exomoons by reducing stellar illumination. In addition to radiative heating, tidal heating can be very large on exomoons, possibly even large enough for sterilization. We identify combinations of physical and orbital parameters for which radiative and tidal heating are strong enough to trigger a runaway greenhouse. By analogy with the circumstellar habitable zone, these constraints define a circumplanetary “habitable edge.” We apply our model to hypothetical moons around the recently discovered exoplanet Kepler-22b and the giant planet candidate KOI211.01 and describe, for the first time, the orbits of habitable exomoons. If either planet hosted a satellite at a distance greater than 10 planetary radii, then this could indicate the presence of a habitable moon. Key Words: Astrobiology—Extrasolar planets—Habitability—Habitable zone—Tides. Astrobiology 13, 18–46.