Science in Action: VPL Researchers Challenge the Discovery of Phosphine in the Venus Atmosphere

VPL Postdoctoral Researcher, Andrew Lincowski (University of Washington), and VPL project PI, Victoria Meadows (University of Washington), published two new…

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Probabilistic Frameworks for Life Detection (In Planetary Astrobiology, 2020)

Our capacity to search for life on other worlds is rapidly advancing, both within our solar system and beyond. In the last few decades robotic missions have explored every major target of astrobiological interest in our solar system, collecting data relevant to assessing habitability across diverse environments, from rocky planets to icy satellites. Outside our solar system, we have now identified thousands of worlds orbiting other stars, many of which may be habitable, suggesting there are many places beyond our solar system where life could, at least in principle, emerge and persist. The next challenge in advancing the search for…

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TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI): Motivations and Protocol Version 1.0 (Geoscientific Model Development, 2020)

Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) or the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) may soon be able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M-dwarf system TRAPPIST-1, which has seven known transiting planets for which transit timing variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles. Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate to have habitable surface conditions, receiving ?66?% of the Earth’s incident radiation and thus needing only modest greenhouse gas inventories to raise surface temperatures to allow surface liquid water to exist. TRAPPIST-1e is, therefore, one of the prime targets for the JWST atmospheric characterization. In this context, the modeling of its potential atmosphere is an essential step prior to observation. Global climate models (GCMs) offer the most detailed way to simulate planetary atmospheres. However, intrinsic differences exist between GCMs which can lead to different climate prediction and thus observability of gas and/or cloud features in transmission and thermal emission spectra. Such differences should preferably be known prior to observations. In this paper we present a protocol to intercompare planetary GCMs. Four testing cases are considered for TRAPPIST-1e, but the methodology is applicable to other rocky exoplanets in the habitable zone. The four test cases included two land planets composed of modern-Earth and pure-CO2 atmospheres and two aqua planets with the same atmospheric compositions. Currently, there are four participating models (LMDG, ROCKE-3D, ExoCAM, UM); however, this protocol is intended to let other teams participate as well.

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VPLANET: The Virtual Planet Simulator (PASP, 2020)

We describe a software package called VPLanet that simulates fundamental aspects of planetary system evolution over Gyr timescales, with a focus on investigating habitable worlds. In this initial release, eleven physics modules are included that model internal, atmospheric, rotational, orbital, stellar, and galactic processes. Many of these modules can be coupled to simultaneously simulate the evolution of terrestrial planets, gaseous planets, and stars. The code is validated by reproducing a selection of observations and past results. VPLanet is written in C and designed so that the user can choose the physics modules to apply to an individual object at runtime without recompiling, i.e., a single executable can simulate the diverse phenomena that are relevant to a wide range of planetary and stellar systems. This feature is enabled by matrices and vectors of function pointers that are dynamically allocated and populated based on user input. The speed and modularity of VPLanet enables large parameter sweeps and the versatility to add/remove physical phenomena to assess their importance. VPLanet is publicly available from a repository that contains extensive documentation, numerous examples, Python scripts for plotting and data management, and infrastructure for community input and future development.

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Impact of Clouds and Hazes in the Simulated JWST Transmission Spectra of Habitable Planets in the TRAPPIST-1 System (The Astrophysical Journal, 2019)

The TRAPPIST-1 system, consisting of an ultracool host star having seven known Earth-sized planets, will be a prime target for atmospheric characterization with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). However, the detectability of atmospheric molecular species may be severely impacted by the presence of clouds and/or hazes. In this work, we perform 3D general circulation model (GCM) simulations with the LMD-G model supplemented by 1D photochemistry simulations at the terminator with the Atmos model to simulate several possible atmospheres for TRAPPIST-1e, 1f, and 1g: (1) modern Earth, (2) Archean Earth, and (3) CO2-rich atmospheres. The JWST synthetic transit spectra were computed using the GSFC Planetary Spectrum Generator. We find that the TRAPPIST-1e, 1f, and 1g atmospheres, with clouds and/or hazes, could be detected using JWST’s NIRSpec Prism from the CO2 absorption line at 4.3 ?m in less than 15 transits at 3? or less than 35 transits at 5?. However, our analysis suggests that other gases would require hundreds (or thousands) of transits to be detectable. We also find that H2O, mostly confined in the lower atmosphere, is very challenging to detect for these planets or similar systems if the planets’ atmospheres are not in a moist greenhouse state. This result demonstrates that the use of GCMs, self-consistently taking into account the effect of clouds and subsaturation, is crucial to evaluate the detectability of atmospheric molecules of interest, as well as for interpreting future detections in a more global (and thus robust and relevant) approach.

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Venus As A Laboratory For Exoplanetary Science (Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, 2019)

The current goals of the astrobiology community are focused on developing a framework for the detection of biosignatures, or evidence thereof, on objects inside and outside of our solar system. A fundamental aspect of understanding the limits of habitable environments (surface liquid water) and detectable signatures thereof is the study of where the boundaries of such environments can occur. Such studies provide the basis for understanding how a once inhabitable planet might come to be uninhabitable

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The Habitability of Proxima Centauri b: Environmental States and Observational Discriminants (Astrobiology, 2018)

Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its star’s habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here, we use 1-D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for several evolutionary scenarios, including high-O2, high-CO2, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with both oxic and anoxic compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen b’s position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and use instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states.

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The Need for Laboratory Work to Aid in The Understanding of Exoplanetary Atmospheres (ArXiv, 2016)

Advancements in our understanding of exoplanetary atmospheres, from massive gas giants down to rocky worlds, depend on the constructive challenges between observations and models. We are now on a clear trajectory for improvements in exoplanet observations that will revolutionize our ability to characterize the atmospheric structure, composition, and circulation of these worlds. These improvements stem from significant investments in new missions and facilities, such as JWST and the several planned ground-based extremely large telescopes. However, while exoplanet science currently has a wide range of sophisticated models that can be applied to the tide of forthcoming observations, the trajectory for preparing these models for the upcoming observational challenges is unclear. Thus, our ability to maximize the insights gained from the next generation of observatories is not certain.

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Identifying Planetary Biosignature Impostors: Spectral Features of CO and O4 Resulting from Abiotic O2/O3 Production (The Astrophysical Journal, 2016)

O2 and O3 have been long considered the most robust individual biosignature gases in a planetary atmosphere, yet multiple mechanisms that may produce them in the absence of life have been described. However, these abiotic planetary mechanisms modify the environment in potentially identifiable ways. Here we briefly discuss two of the most detectable spectral discriminants for abiotic O2/O3: CO and O4. We produce the first explicit self-consistent simulations of these spectral discriminants as they may be seen by James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). If JWST-NIRISS and/or NIRSpec observe CO (2.35, 4.6 μm) in conjunction with CO2 (1.6, 2.0, 4.3 μm) in the transmission spectrum of a terrestrial planet it could indicate robust CO2 photolysis and suggest that a future detection of O2 or O3 might not be biogenic. Strong O4 bands seen in transmission at 1.06 and 1.27 μm could be diagnostic of a post-runaway O2-dominated atmosphere from massive H-escape. We find that for these false positive scenarios, CO at 2.35 μm, CO2 at 2.0 and 4.3 μm, and O4 at 1.27 μm are all stronger features in transmission than O2/O3 and could be detected with S/Ns gsim 3 for an Earth-size planet orbiting a nearby M dwarf star with as few as 10 transits, assuming photon-limited noise. O4 bands could also be sought in UV/VIS/NIR reflected light (at 0.345, 0.36, 0.38, 0.445, 0.475, 0.53, 0.57, 0.63, 1.06, and 1.27 μm) by a next generation direct-imaging telescope such as LUVOIR/HDST or HabEx and would indicate an oxygen atmosphere too massive to be biologically produced.

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Exo-C Mission Study Final Report (NASA Exoplanet Exploration Program, 2015)

Exo-C is a NASA-sponsored community mission study of a space telescope designed for high contrast imaging of extrasolar planetary systems with an internal coronagraph. Starting in summer 2013 and completing in early 2015, the Exo-C study shows what could be done with an optimized space telescope within a “probe scale” cost cap of $1B. The Exo-C study is being carried out by a Science and Technology Definition selected by NASA HQ and by an engineering design team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

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Detecting and Constraining N2 Abundances in Planetary Atmospheres Using Collisional Pairs (the Astrophysical Journal, 2015)

Characterizing the bulk atmosphere of a terrestrial planet is important for determining surface pressure and potential habitability. Molecular nitrogen (N2) constitutes the largest fraction of Earth’s atmosphere and is likely to be a major constituent of many terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres. Due to its lack of significant absorption features, N2 is extremely difficult to remotely detect. However, N2 produces an N2–N2 collisional pair, (N2)2, which is spectrally active. Here we report the detection of (N2)2 in Earth’s disk-integrated spectrum.

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13C and 15N fractionation of CH4/N2 mixtures during photochemical aerosol formation: Relevance to Titan (Icarus, 2015)

The ratios of the stable isotopes that comprise each chemical species in Titan’s atmosphere provide critical information towards understanding the processes taking place within its modern and ancient atmosphere. Several stable isotope pairs, including 12C/13C and 14N/15N, have been measured in situ or probed spectroscopically by Cassini-borne instruments, space telescopes, or through ground-based observations. Current attempts to model the observed isotope ratios incorporate fractionation resulting from atmospheric diffusion, hydrodynamic escape, and primary photochemical processes. However, the effect of a potentially critical pathway for isotopic fractionation – organic aerosol formation and subsequent deposition onto the surface of Titan – has not been considered due to insufficient data regarding fractionation during aerosol formation.

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Effects of Extreme Obliquity Variations on the Habitability of Exoplanets (Astrobiology, 2014)

We explore the impact of obliquity variations on planetary habitability in hypothetical systems with high mutual inclination. We show that large-amplitude, high-frequency obliquity oscillations on Earth-like exoplanets can suppress the ice-albedo feedback, increasing the outer edge of the habitable zone. We restricted our exploration to hypothetical systems consisting of a solar-mass star, an Earth-mass planet at 1 AU, and 1 or 2 larger planets. We verified that these systems are stable for 108 years with N-body simulations and calculated the obliquity variations induced by the orbital evolution of the Earth-mass planet and a torque from the host star. We ran a simplified energy balance model on the terrestrial planet to assess surface temperature and ice coverage on the planet’s surface, and we calculated differences in the outer edge of the habitable zone for planets with rapid obliquity variations. For each hypothetical system, we calculated the outer edge of habitability for two conditions: (1) the full evolution of the planetary spin and orbit and (2) the eccentricity and obliquity fixed at their average values. We recovered previous results that higher values of fixed obliquity and eccentricity expand the habitable zone, but we also found that obliquity oscillations further expand habitable orbits in all cases. Terrestrial planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone may be more likely to support life in systems that induce rapid obliquity oscillations as opposed to fixed-spin planets. Such planets may be the easiest to directly characterize with space-borne telescopes. Key Words: Exoplanets—Habitable zone—Energy balance models. Astrobiology 14, 277–291.

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Habitable Zones around Main-sequence Stars: New Estimates (The Astrophysical Journal, 2013)

Identifying terrestrial planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of other stars is one of the primary goals of ongoing radial velocity (RV) and transit exoplanet surveys and proposed future space missions. Most current estimates of the boundaries of the HZ are based on one-dimensional (1D), cloud-free, climate model calculations by Kasting et al. However, this model used band models that were based on older HITRAN and HITEMP line-by-line databases. The inner edge of the HZ in the Kasting et al. model was determined by loss of water, and the outer edge was determined by the maximum greenhouse provided by a CO2 atmosphere. A conservative estimate for the width of the HZ from this model in our solar system is 0.95-1.67 AU. Here an updated 1D radiative-convective, cloud-free climate model is used to obtain new estimates for HZ widths around F, G, K, and M stars. New H2O and CO2 absorption coefficients, derived from the HITRAN 2008 and HITEMP 2010 line-by-line databases, are important improvements to the climate model. According to the new model, the water-loss (inner HZ) and maximum greenhouse (outer HZ) limits for our solar system are at 0.99 and 1.70 AU, respectively, suggesting that the present Earth lies near the inner edge. Additional calculations are performed for stars with effective temperatures between 2600 and 7200 K, and the results are presented in parametric form, making them easy to apply to actual stars. The new model indicates that, near the inner edge of the HZ, there is no clear distinction between runaway greenhouse and water-loss limits for stars with T eff lesssim 5000 K, which has implications for ongoing planet searches around K and M stars. To assess the potential habitability of extrasolar terrestrial planets, we propose using stellar flux incident on a planet rather than equilibrium temperature. This removes the dependence on planetary (Bond) albedo, which varies depending on the host star’s spectral type. We suggest that conservative estimates of the HZ (water-loss and maximum greenhouse limits) should be used for current RV surveys and Kepler mission to obtain a lower limit on η⊕, so that future flagship missions like TPF-C and Darwin are not undersized. Our model does not include the radiative effects of clouds; thus, the actual HZ boundaries may extend further in both directions than the estimates just given.

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A bistable organic-rich atmosphere on the Neoarchaean Earth (Nature Geoscience, 2012)

We find evidence for oxygen production in microbial mats and localized oxygenation of surface waters. Carbon and sulphur isotopes indicate that this oxygen production occurred under a reduced atmosphere that was periodically rich in methane, consistent with the prediction of a hydrocarbon haze. We use a photochemical model to corroborate our geochemical data. Our simulations predict transitions between two stable atmospheric states, one with organic haze and the other haze-free. The transitions are presumably governed by variations in the amount of biological methane production during the Archaean eon. We find that the isotopic signatures we observe are evident in other data sets from this period and conclude that methane was an important component of the atmosphere throughout the Archaean.

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Using Biogenic Sulfur Gases as Remotely Detectable Biosignatures on Anoxic Planets (Astrobiology, 2011)

We used one-dimensional photochemical and radiative transfer models to study the potential of organic sulfur compounds (CS2, OCS, CH3SH, CH3SCH3, and CH3S2CH3) to act as remotely detectable biosignatures in anoxic exoplanetary atmospheres. Concentrations of organic sulfur gases were predicted for various biogenic sulfur fluxes into anoxic atmospheres and were found to increase with decreasing UV fluxes. Dimethyl sulfide (CH3SCH3, or DMS) and dimethyl disulfide (CH3S2CH3, or DMDS) concentrations could increase to remotely detectable levels, but only in cases of extremely low UV fluxes, which may occur in the habitable zone of an inactive M dwarf. The most detectable feature of organic sulfur gases is an indirect one that results from an increase in ethane (C2H6) over that which would be predicted based on the planet’s methane (CH4) concentration. Thus, a characterization mission could detect these organic sulfur gases—and therefore the life that produces them—if it could sufficiently quantify the ethane and methane in the exoplanet’s atmosphere. Key Words: Exoplanets—Biosignatures—Anoxic atmospheres—Planetary atmospheres—Remote life detection—Photochemistry. Astrobiology 11, 419–441.

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